Longtime Wall Street Auto Analyst John Murphy Launches Murphy Automotive Partners and the MAPP — a New Verdict on Which Car Brands Survive
Inaugural research finds an industry heading into a near-term “product valley,” a truck-led recovery, a decisive turn from EVs to hybrids, and a reckoning for brands that bet wrong.

DETROIT, June 25, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Murphy Automotive Partners (www.murphyautomotivepartners.com) launched today with the release of the MAPP™ — the Murphy Automotive Product Pipeline™, a forward look at the U.S. vehicle pipeline through model year 2031e (MY2031e) and a blunt assessment of which brands are positioned to win, and which may not make it. MAPP builds on Car Wars, the benchmark product-cadence study Murphy authored at Bank of America for more than two decades, now an independent franchise extended to the full multi-powertrain era. The firm is led by John Murphy, recognized by the Automotive Hall of Fame as an Industry Influencer and one of the industry's most-followed analysts.

The inaugural preview edition of the MAPP, subtitled “Survival of the Freshest,” argues that product, not propulsion hype, will decide the winners. The full MAPP report will be available to subscription partners in late July 2026. After years of EV-program deferrals, the pipeline runs through the deepest three-year product valley in modern history, as measured by the Vehicle Redesign Rate (VRR). New model activity is so sparse that the U.S. Average Product Age (APA) climbs to a record of approximately 4.8 years by MY2028e before a delayed wave of redesigns finally lands.

The powertrain story is equally pointed. Murphy's work finds hybrids more than doubling to over a quarter of the market by MY2031e, while pure EVs stall below their 2024 share level. He reframes hybrids not as a bridge, but as “a durable solution.” The market itself is a barbell, with growth migrating to the truck and small-utility flanks while the once-dominant mid-size crossover core fades.

At the center of the new franchise is the Brand Survival Index™ (BSI™), which is a proprietary score that puts odds on long-term brand viability and identifies which brands, and even which automakers, are most exposed. The full rankings are reserved for clients.

“The next five years aren't about who has the most hyped concept, they're about who actually shows up with the freshest product portfolio after the worst drought in history,” said John Murphy, Founder of Murphy Automotive Partners. “Some of the most familiar names in this industry are closer to the edge than the market realizes. The MAPP is how you see it coming.”

The MAPP is the flagship launch product, one of the three in the Murphy Automotive Partners Portfolio. It is built for OEM strategy teams, suppliers, and dealer groups who need one trusted source for what's coming, when, why, and from whom. The two other franchise products will follow in the next year: Who's Behind the Wheel™, a detailed proprietary analysis of the auto supply base, and The Dealer Doctrine™, a one-of-a-kind review of the franchised dealer channel's economics, structure, and the path forward. Tiered research and data offerings from reports up to bespoke, nameplate-level intelligence will be available to partners.

Underpinning the product portfolio is the firm's Strategic Counsel practice, which works directly with the boards, management teams, operators, and capital allocators making the highest-stakes calls of how to position, where to allocate capital, and how to land on the right side of the divide. The Portfolio rests on this work.

About Murphy Automotive Partners

Murphy Automotive Partners is an independent automotive research and advisory firm — Strategic Counsel to the Industry — founded by widely recognized, three-decade auto analyst John Murphy. The firm's proprietary metrics track vehicle redesign cadence, product age, model mix, and brand survival to help leaders across the auto value chain make sharper product, capital, and competitive decisions. Learn more at www.murphyautomotivepartners.com.

About John Murphy

John Murphy spent more than 26 years as the senior North American automotive equity research analyst at Bank of America (previously Merrill Lynch), where he and his team were named to the Institutional Investor All-America Research Team for 25 years. He authored Car Wars, the benchmark study of OEM product-pipeline competitiveness, alongside The Dealer Manual and Who Makes the Car, and founded and hosted the bank's annual New York Auto Summit for 17 years. He played an integral role in advising investors during the landmark IPOs of General Motors, Rivian, Ferrari, and Delphi, alongside many other major capital raises. A frequent voice on CNBC, Bloomberg TV, and Yahoo Finance, he was recognized by the Automotive Hall of Fame as an Industry Influencer in 2023. He holds a B.A. in Quantitative Economics from Tufts University and is a CFA charterholder.

Media Contact: Katie Merx · media@murphyautomotivepartners.com · +1 313.510.5090

Selected findings available for attribution. Full MAPP report, Brand Survival Index rankings, and nameplate-level forecasts available to partners under subscription.

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